How to Survive Winter

There’s a storm coming in toward Scotland – it’ll brush by Northern Ireland, and deliver strong winds, if not gales through the rest of Ireland and Northern England. The UK Met Office have issued a “red warning” for tomorrow, and the Guardian covers it in more detail.

It was a very stormy autumn, and it looks like that’s not abating quickly – aside from this one, the forecast models are predicting an even stronger one early next week. That’s not reliable at this stage, of course, but it’s an illustration of the amount of energy coming in from the North Atlantic at this time of year.

With most of the trees now leafless, and several other storms in the recent past, it’s unlikely that there will be many more trees brought down. Drivers of high-sided vehicles should be careful, though, and umbrellas can be safely declared useless for the duration. In addition, temperatures are going to be fairly low throughout, so the wind chill will be fairly nasty – wrap up well.

Peter O’Donnell has released his Irish Winter Forecast for 2010/2011. O’Donnell is one of the most accurate forecasters out there, and his predictions for last year’s early winter weather were right on the money, so I’m inclined to pay more heed to this than to most.

To summarise, he reckons that there’ll be a good amount of variation in the weather through the winter. November will be slightly colder than average, though nothing like as bad as last year. December will probably be about average, but January will be at least 2°C colder than usual, possibly even 4°C colder, with a distinct possibility of major snow events toward the end of the month. February will be quite mild, and then March colder again.

This is more in line than last winter with the “traditional” pattern, particularly the relatively mild weather in December, followed by cold and snow in January. We’ll see how it plays out – O’Donnell will update as more data becomes available, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on his forecasts.

The mountains in Svalbard have a light coating of snow today, and snow at sea level is expected there over the weekend. Svalbard is one of the earliest coastal locations in the Northern Hemisphere to see snow every year, and weather watchers keep an eye on it for that – not because it’s a clear indicator of anything else, but simply to see the “first snow” of winter.

The image above is from a webcam in Longyearbyen, and you can see the snow across the water.

In addition, there’s a report from the BBC that Heathrow Airport has tripled its snow clearance fleet, which is an interesting investment, and shows they’re taking the possibility of heavy snow seriously this year.

It all seems a little strange in the late September heatwave here, where some Irish and UK weather stations recorded the hottest day of the year yesterday.

There were problems all over Ireland and the UK last winter with frozen water pipes. In response, people left taps running overnight – or even all the time when the weather was really cold. This is, unless you have your own well, pretty much exactly the wrong thing to do. Sure, it keeps your water running, but it can contribute to draining reservoirs at a time when there’s not much water going back into them, and the various water authorities respond to this (and to mains pipes freezing and cracking) by turning the supply off. That doesn’t help anyone. So if your pipes tend to freeze, what should you do?

Well, first and foremost, if your pipes froze last year, you can do things to prevent this. It’s possible that your water supply pipes are too close to the surface, for a start. Mains water usually runs at about 45cm down, or further, but the pipe from the supply to the house may run considerably closer to the surface. Ours, for instance, ran fairly deep for most of the way, but came up to only about 8cm below the surface just before it came into the house – this was discovered when we had a new porch put in this autumn, when the ground was dug up. It explains a lot about our water supply last winter, too. It should be considerably better this year, since it’s now buried under the porch.

If you can’t rebury the pipe deeper, you may still be able to insulate it, and this is also true of pipes that come above the surface before going through a wall. Indeed, it’s often worthwhile to insulate pipes even inside the house.

Failing that, your next thing is to store water. This requires some preparation, or alternately, keeping a close eye on the weather forecast. You can store water in the long term, but it requires adding a drop of bleach to make sure it stays clear and clean, and I’ve never been too keen on the idea. I find it much easier to keep an eye on the forecasts, and to fill the bath and a few buckets or other containers when there’s a cold snap coming up. You can then take care of essentials like cooking, toilet flushing, and so on, from that. Obviously, in a long cold period, this isn’t as useful, but it can work perfectly well over the shorter snaps.

For longer periods, there are a number of coping strategies, but they largely come down to getting your water elsewhere. The most essential thing is toilet flushing, so prioritise it, but note that you can use “grey water” – water left after cooking, washing up, etc – for that. Melted snow and ice can provide more – go for ice, if you can, since snow is not dense, and a bucket of snow will only produce about 10% of the volume in water. Local councils will often send out water tankers as well, and you can bring along buckets and containers and get them filled. It’s also rare enough for everywhere in a given area to be cut off at once, so you may be able to shower and wash clothes at a neighbour’s house. During the worst of the cold snaps last year, some hotels were also offering washing services for small prices – you get the use of an en-suite room for an hour or so. And if you have a gym membership, it’s a good time to take advantage of their facilities, even if you don’t otherwise use them.

When it comes down to it, running water is a modern invention, and people got along without it for a long time. It’s inconvenient, but it’s by no means impossible to deal with it.

My records indicate that we had the first frost in 2008 on the 27th of October,  2009 on the 7th of October, and in 2010 on the 17th of October. I’ve been keeping a close eye on predictions for this year, and I believe it’ll be mid-October again.  Now, bear in mind there that that’s a semi-urban area, altitude only about 70m, not too distant from Dublin, so there could well be earlier frosts further north or west, or higher up.

Nights are already getting a little cooler, and there have been some dips as low as 8°C. However, it’ll take slightly longer nights before things really cool enough for frost, and the equinox is not quite here yet – tomorrow morning.

I might as well make a prediction while I’m here, so I’m going to go for the 16th of October for the first frost this year. There are fairly broad expectations from many forecasters for a cold snap around the end of October and the beginning of November; I’m a bit skeptical about it being that early, but we’ll see.

Warnings have been issued by the UK Met Office, Met Eireann, and various other sites for wintry weather from Thursday onward. A cold front is set to sweep across the British Isles during Thursday, and temperatures will drop quickly. There may be snow pretty much anywhere between now and Monday the 20th. Get ready!

The first cold snap of the winter is now passing, but there’s almost certainly more in store. People all over Ireland and the UK have been snowed in – not so much that they couldn’t get out at all, in most cases, but such that they couldn’t get out in any comfort, or get back in with groceries or fuel. In recognition of that, here’s some advice for the next time – a list of things you should do now if you got snowed in this time. This is mostly aimed at people in rural areas; urban and suburban areas don’t get cut off to the same degree.

It’s important to remember that while snow isn’t all that dangerous if you know how to deal with it, most people in this part of the world don’t know how. They barely know how to walk in snow, let alone drive, and there’s a distinct possibility that venturing out in that kind of weather can leave you stranded elsewhere. The best thing to do if it’s difficult to move is not move. Don’t feel you need you get to the shops during a snowy or icy period – instead, follow these simple steps, and you won’t have to.

1. Store food – canned and dry foods are ideal here. Rice, pasta, and potatoes will keep better than bread, but throw a few sliced pans or whatever in the freezer if you can’t live without it. Have enough to go for a week without leaving the house.
2. Store water – if your pipes are prone to freezing, then fill a few buckets and the bathtub with water. If you have your own well, or a gravity feed, feel free to leave a tap running. If you’re on a mains supply, do not leave a tap running.
3. Store fuel – fuel in this case means heating material. Wood, coal, oil, wood pellets, whatever you need. If you’ve only electrical heat, consider getting a gas heater that runs from a cylinder of gas, and get a spare cylinder.
4. Buy a snow shovel and a stiff brush – and keep your paths clear. At the least, keep a footpath from you to a public road clear. If you’re up to it, make sure sloping areas of your driveway are cleared so a car has a chance of getting in and back. Clear snow each time it stops falling; this will avoid the packed ice that results otherwise and makes driving and walking so much more difficult.
5. Get some entertainment in – books, DVDs, boardgames, whatever suits. You’ll be bored, so give yourself something to do.
6. Get candles – power cuts during snow aren’t as common as they used to be, but they can still happen. Have a stash of candles in for light, and, as above, make sure you’ve a non-electrical source of heat. Ideally, also have a camping stove or the like so you can heat food.

Nothing in this is complicated or difficult; people used to do it regularly and routinely, and it’s only in the last 20 years or so in the British Isles that we’ve got out of the habit with mild winters. Get the goods in, and keep an eye on the weather forecasts.

We’re in the middle of a cold spell right now. In Ireland, there’s a bit of a thaw today, and then there’ll likely be more cold and snow tonight and tomorrow, followed by some very cold air around Friday. Generally speaking, the country is handling it fairly well; there are schools closed, but most businesses are open, and travel hasn’t been too bad.

Some things I’ve observed, and which could be done better – mostly down to individuals:

Rubber Boots, aka Wellies – these are NOT suitable for snow. Your feet will be very cold, and they can get stuck in deeper snow. Wear leather shoes, preferably leather boots.

If your car has snow or frost on the windscreen, do not try to use the windscreen wipers to remove it – you’ll break them. Clear off snow with a brush, and then scrape off frost with the edge of a plastic card, if you don’t have a dedicated scraper. Then get a dedicated scraper. Hot water is also asking for trouble; it may well refreeze where it falls and provide a broad sheet of ice – or, indeed, it may crack your windscreen.

If snow is melting on your footpaths, and it’s likely to freeze again, get out there and shovel it off. Otherwise, you can end up with a solid covering of ice, possibly with more snow on top. Ideally, in a prolonged cold spell, you should shovel off snow as soon as it stops falling, in order to avoid heavier work and compressed snow later on.

This is the earliest burst of snow and proper cold in the UK since 1993, and personally, I don’t remember seeing lying snow in Ireland in November before, not even in my homeplace in the hills of North Wexford. The ground is getting chilled earlier than usual, which means that cold spells through the rest of the winter have a greater likelihood of leaving snow cover, which in turn brings air temperatures down.

Be careful out there.

The weather forecasts are now lining up, and it looks inevitable that the first cold spell of the winter will start around the 24th of November, and last for at least a week. This will include sub-zero night-time temperatures, and a possibility in some areas of days not getting above freezing. There’s a chance of some snow for the UK, and northern and eastern areas of Ireland. There’s no real reliablity on how long the cold spell will last; some predictions have it for only a few days, while others see it lasting well into December.

Things to do:

If your water supplies tend to be cut in cold weather, fill some large containers with water. Don’t leave taps running if you’re on a public water supply; it can can contribute to the draining of reservoirs.

Make sure your heating is in order (fire up the boiler now if you haven’t already, just to make sure!).

If you have temporary insulation (extra window covers, draft excluders), this is the time to put them in place.

It’s also a good idea, if you think cold weather might make it hard to leave your home, to get in some food. Canned soup, carbs like rice and pasta, and the like will see you through a few days if the need arises. Very often, the cold itself is not an issue, but injuries sustained by walking on ice or the like can be a problem.

Check on elderly and mobility-impaired relatives and neighbours during the colder weather, and make sure they’re comfortable and have supplies – if it’s hard to move for those of us who are young and able-bodied, it’s that much more difficult for them.