Two more predictions for very cold winter weather have come to light. Neither has much of a record of accurate predictions that I’m aware of, but each one presents at least some reasoning for their forecasts.
The first is from Christopher Nankervis, who writes for weatherlogistics.com. His forecast for the UK gives a good bit of reasoning (including a 14-to-21-day teleconnection with the US East Coast weather, which I’ve observed myself), and this chunk of prediction:
A deep cold snap over the East coast of the US points toward an abrupt and intense Arctic-type weather scenario in the UK in 14 to 21 days time. This deep freeze may see temperatures plummet, with significant widespread snowfall and perhaps blizzard across Britain during mid-December 2011.
Meantime, Harry Kershaw, described in the Manchester Evening News as an “amateur weatherman” who bases his predictions on matching patterns with historical weather, is reported thus:
he fears this winter could be as cold as that of 1812-13
The article goes on to quote information about Moscow and Napoleon’s retreat in that winter. Now, if Mr. Kershaw is matching patterns, he’ll also need to match the geography, so quoting Russian winters in comparison seems to miss the point. There are very few direct quotes, though, so I suspect the Manchester Evening News has boosted the signal a little. Oddly, in this part of the world, 1812-13 doesn’t seem to have been all that terrible, although there was a foot of snow in March in Edinburgh. On the other hand, the Thames froze over in 1811, and again in 1813-1814 – which was one of the most severe winters on record.
So if Kershaw’s pattern-matching theory is correct, this coming winter should be chilly but manageable, and then 2012-2013 should be extremely cold. There are more predictions for cold this winter than otherwise, so we’ll see.
So far this 2011 Winter is mild, quite different from last year and the one before. We´ll see what 2012 weather brings, but at least we have 1 month less of Winter!