How to Survive Winter

It’s pretty certain now that the remainder of the week will be cold. Forecasts have been wavering back and forth for a couple of weeks now, but temperatures started to drop in the UK last night, with snow in some areas,  and we’re now seeing a drop – somewhat ahead of the predicted time, though only by a few hours – in the Irish Sea.

This definitely means frost and sub-zero temperatures from Tuesday night onward in most areas, and could mean snow across eastern areas of both the UK and Ireland as streamers develop – but no certainty as yet.

This morning saw the first frost of 2012, and indeed, the first since early December. The contrast with last year could not be greater. At present, it looks like remaining cold for the weekend, getting milder early next week, and then turning cold again, with at least a possibility of snow around next weekend.

Apart from anything else, this does mean we’re seeing frosts again, and therefore the sight of people pouring hot water on their windscreens to defrost them. Don’t do this. In the kind of frosts that Ireland and the UK normally get, you’re increasing the chance that your windscreen will crack – possibly there and then if you dump boiling water on it when it’s at sub-zero temperatures. And if it’s colder, you’re just providing the material for more ice – on the windscreen, on the rest of the car, and on the area of the drive where you’re going to be stepping again in ten minutes time. Believe me, in -10°C, ten minutes is plenty of time for a thin layer of ice to form.

Instead, scrape the ice off. If you have a dedicated ice-scraping tool – and many garages, petrol stations and motor factors carry them – use that. If not, use the edge of a plastic card; it won’t harm the card. This removes the ice in a way that prevents it from re-freezing immediately, ensures you’re protecting your windscreen and windows, and makes sure you’re not contributing to ice where you’re going to be walking.

And if it does snow, take the time to clear the snow off the whole car, not just the windscreen. Snow left on the bonnet can easily move up onto the windscreen once you’re in motion, and snow on the roof can slide off and hit other vehicles. Just clearing the windscreen may be faster, but it’s dangerous.

We’re finally getting some winter weather – be careful out there!

There is an equivalent for the medieval monk’s habit, a garment designed for reading and working while sitting still in cold rooms. That garment – ideal for studying or other knowledge work – is the hoody. As winter wear goes, it’s cheap, easily available, and very effective indeed.

It’s much maligned as the clothing choice of the teenage delinquent, of course. This is because it hides the face – but that which hides the face can also protect it from draughts and cold. It’s usually made of heavy fabric, and it often has big pockets. The heavy fabric is an obvious advantage, and the pockets do very nicely to put your hands in when you’re not turning pages.

There’s also the fact that blocking out some of your peripheral vision cuts down on distraction. This is a huge advantage if you’re trying to concentrate. I’ve recently begun studying again, and the hoody has contributed a great deal to my comfort and serenity.

This ties back to something I’ve been thinking about – it’s a lot cheaper to warm yourself by wearing an extra layer than it is to do so by heating your environment. If we get more winters like 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 in these islands, it’s something most people are going to have to look into.

The best forecasters I know have predicted a cold snap in the second half of January. Naturally, as forecasts go, this is something of a shot in the dark still – but we’re beginning to see the first indications of cold weather in the longer-term model runs. A lot of this is driven by an event called “sudden stratospheric warming”, and while this is a relatively new area within weather forecasting, the thinking is that a warming event in the stratosphere can cause cold weather in the mid-latitudes of the northern (or, presumably, southern) hemisphere.

This isn’t at all certain yet, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. These islands can get severe wintry weather right up to March and early April, and many of the heaviest recorded snowfalls have been in January and February. If there are stronger indications, then it might be worth reviewing my post on How To Cope With Being Snowed In…

I was woken a few hours ago by wind. This certainly hasn’t happened in this house before, and I’m pretty sure it’s never happened to me before at all – I’m generally a very sound sleeper.  There’s a storm in progress, and it looks like the winds that woke me were part of a squall line that passed over between 05:00 and 05:30 this morning. However, where I am in North Kildare is pretty calm compared to some areas – there’s a report of a 91kt gust at Malin Head, and sustained winds there around the 67kt mark.

Most of this has happened overnight, so there aren’t many damage reports in. It’s clear that there were many power cuts in the NW of Ireland, and the storm is really only getting going in the UK now. It’s on a more southerly track than the last few in what has already been a very stormy period, so areas (like where I live) that haven’t been impacted before are seeing some significant winds.

I’ll be updating some of the pages on the website over the next few days with advice on how to handle high winds.

The first snowflakes for much of Ireland were coming down during this morning’s rush hour. They didn’t amount to much, and certainly didn’t stick anywhere under 200m above sea level, but there are already worries about a repeat of last year’s weather, with ice remaining for weeks.

But we live in an archipelago off the western coast of a large continent in the northern hemisphere. This means that the majority of our weather comes from the south-west, due to the simplest consequences of atmospheric physics. And the south-west is mild and wet. We can occasionally get snow from the north-west, certainly, as we did this morning, but that never lasts for long, simply because it is mild and wet.

The only circumstances under which we can have lasting ice and snow here is if the continental climate extends over us for a while, and snow falls. But the continental climate, when it does extend over us, tends to be cold and dry, influenced by high pressure – which means that we get clear skies, cold weather, and no snowfall. If it does snow, the cold weather keeps the snow from melting and forming ice, until the climatic influence changes, and then it all melts.

Last year’s extended presence of ice was very unusual, and really isn’t likely to be repeated. There’s certainly a possibility of snowfall in January 2012, but even then, it almost certainly won’t last more than a couple of days, and then will melt away quickly, without leaving ice.

The temperatures are gradually creeping down; there’ve been some heavy frosts this week in my area, with the first ice appearing in puddles. There’s been snow in Northern Ireland and in Scotland, and there are some signs of colder weather in the weeks to come – though as yet, they’re not certain.

At this point in the year, it’s worth making sure your winter preparations are in place – food supplies, water, and so on, as well as a car emergency kit. See what state your neighbours are in, too, especially the older folks, and consider putting out some food for wild birds – I’ll be setting up the bird table this coming weekend.

At the moment, although the temperatures haven’t been anything to compare to last year, the wind has been a little bit stronger, and that’s made it feel bitter. Covering skin is the key here, so go for gloves, hats, and scarves, and try to get two layers on; that bit of still air between the two layers of cloth is better insulation than any single thick garment.